Roebear,
Am dedicating much of my time right now to review and revision of where we've been and were we may be going.
I'm not as bullish on gold as I was. Still putting the pieces together. Fed damage control on the SS Bubble has been ongoing for some time now, and so far its provided a relatively orderly abandon ship. Clearly the NASDAQ forward compartments are gone, but the DJIA engine room is still intact, though the bulkhead is straining, and we have no report on fuel. The question remains to be answered if she goes down and when, and how many souls it will cost. Will we limp to shore for repairs?
Clearly gold has been a key part of the strategy. What happens when the big pumps are started again, and we limp to shore (this past week I think we sent many sailors down to do just that)? Gold will be the last thing to be repaired. What happens if we go down? Gold bugs hope that gold pops to the surface like a cork, free at last. But she may be needed for the battle to the bottom, and may just lie there forever.
Back to the fuel holds. We don't know if the boilers are functioning or not, or how many tankers we will need to get back to port. We do know that we don't need the fleet we needed when we were steaming along at 28 knots.
There's alot of water between here and the port, and there's no vessel large enough to sail out and carry this beast home. There is no doubt choppy water, but will there be a storm, or worse yet a tidal wave from some distant quake?
BTW I think we are in a good time period to do 1 year comps.
My gut still says that we flat line on equities sometime soon. Watch the volatility index go to zero. Thats the L landing scenario, and it will be time to look elsewhere for speculation opportunities.
EZ |
