Thoughts on the software sector:
Here's something I've been pondering. Earlier this week Oracle's announcement effected stocks like TIBX, CMRC, ARBA, SEBL, I2, etc. My thoughts are that ORCL is not like the aforementioned companies (with the potential exception of SEBL). Oracle's penetration is high, they have been around a while, and their product is installed almost everywhere. They are fighting with Microsoft in the lower-end, trying to compete with MSFT's aggressive pricing, and MSFT's product (SQL Server 2k) is better than ever.
The Arriba's and Tibco's of the world are just getting started. Supply chain is hot, and a significantly lower percentage of companies have started these initiatives when compared with those who have Oracle's products installed.
So, in sum, I am questioning whether it is appropriate to apply Oracle's forward looking guidance to ARBA, etc. The opportunity for growth is distinctly - dare I say radically - different.
I didn't listen to the Oracle conf. call, so don't know how each of their products have sold (Oracle does have an "app server" offering).
Does anyone care to comment?
Thanks. |
