Thanks Don, for making something constructive out of my labored bitchin'.
I agree with Gottfried on "big money" as opposed to "smart money". My view, rightly or wrongly, is that the truly "smart money" is but a gnat now, incapable of moving markets short term in any perceptible way. They may still have predictive value, but how would one measure or detect it?
My view is that once the line of greater fools is wiped out or becomes disinterested, solid yield with reasonable slow growth potential will be lookin' damn fine. Participating in businesses at sensible/attractive prices will again become fashionable, and the singleminded focus on high growth will fade away. I'm not seeing any selling pressure in my holdings which fit this description. To the contrary, the steady march upwards continues unabated. Perhaps owners of such securities just don't do margin?
Was thinking I might want to join William on the short side of AMAT, but would like to see that trade set up closer to 50, so as to be able to minimize the risk. However, I'm sure it's crowded up there and I just don't like competition! Chip making capacity has soared by incredible amounts in the last few years. After the excess inventory is given away, all of that capacity will remain. Now that these managers have gotten a taste of cyclicality, will their newfound planning requirements (and their lenders!!) allow them to immediately begin expanding that capacity in anticipation of the next round of hyperdamand? I just don't see how the chip equipment business can turn around within the next 18 months. I agree with Fleckenstein in that the only business that now looks worse than the chip manufacturers is the equipment makers.
But then, the maniacs have proven themselves capable of just about anything, no?
Thanks for your contributions.
TM |
