Why GSM players in trouble
Greetings:
FWIW reasons I think cdma's competition (infra and phone manufacutrers) is in trouble:
1. Their short term upgrade path GPRS is not working and is delayed. This upgrade to GSM will happen as it is merely a software upgrade. The main problems are heat generation and battery life. To transmit data, GPRS increases the % of time the phone is transmitting and recieving than it normally does, thus using much more power and generating a lot more heat. In comaprision, cdma 1x increases battery life and reduces power consumption, in addition to doubling carriers capacity. As long as GPRS is delayed, the phone manufacturers have no new product to sell. When it does come out, the GPRS phones will significantly under perform their 1X counterparts in both data rates, heat generation and battery life. So where there is direct compettition between GSM and CDMA, CDMA will have a SIGNIFICANT advantage.
2. Significant WCDMA deployment is a long way away. Compared to 1XeV, which will begin deploymnet in 2002, the manufacturers of WCDMA phones and infrastructure will have a much smaller market (even with 4 times bigger base to upgrade) than existing cdma carriers. In short, even with the smaller cdma market, more POPS will have access to 1XeV than WCDMA in the next 3 years.
The rubber is hitting the road. FUDD will be less as cdma 1X and 1XeV are demonstrated on working networks.
Caxton |
