Dave, although SOME flash memory is used for purely consumer type activities or hobbies, I don't think that photojournalism, insurance claims, and numerous other business oriented activities would fall into that category. You can rest assured that virtually every real estate firm now uses digital photography to document properties for sale. There are many other examples as well, including professional wedding photography, which create a continuing and growing market, particularly for larger capacity flash cards.
As for the market for MMC and SDMC, the Napster case argues strongly for the use of SDMC, which the recording and music publishing industry has already agreed to as a standard for assuring that copyrights are honored and fees billed to each user. The recording industry balked at Napster's offer to remove copyrighted files where there was no permission granted in advance for copying. The trouble with that solution is that songs are listed under various titles, and use of a different title would enable someone to circumvent the copyright. The recording industry turned down this offer by Napster. That means the ONLY solution appears to be the SD design, or the more cumbersome Sony MemoryStick solution.
That said, I have been unable to obtain anything more than anecdotal information on increases or decreases in flash card sales. Furthermore, I haven't seen anything more than anecdotal data (and sometimes not even that much data) from investment firms such as Merrill Lynch. I don't know where these guys get their data for arriving at their negative conclusions. I have an idea that they invent the data. Certainly, if they're getting as much info as I get from SNDK, they're forced to invent something. So as far as I'm concerned, I don't know what is the state of the industry, and in particular, the revenues going to SNDK. I don't think it's as bad as you suggest, but I'd like to see some valid data before I draw any more conclusions.
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