Everyone, and I mean everyone, is saying we are going to have a bear rally in March, and then go on to lower lows. If everyone is getting ready to sell the rally, how can there be a rally? Maybe the rally happened on Friday afternoon (that's all you get, then the decline continues)?
The SOX just bounced off the bottom of its 515-760 range, where its been since falling off a cliff last September. News in the semi industry, over the last several weeks, has gotten abruptly worse. Demand is significantly worse than expected, even compared to a couple of months ago. Inventories are not getting cleared, hope of a 2H01 recovery is fading, the universal comment on all CCs is "zero visibility".
My favorite quote: ``I was reminded it's Ash Wednesday. For Lent, we're giving up forecasting,'' chairman and chief executive (of TXN) Tom Engibous told analysts.
This worsening of the fundamentals is not in the stocks, not even yet. I'm thinking the SOX needs to completely give back the 1999-2000 bubble, back to where it was at the end of 1998. That would put the SOX at about 400, which is also the 1997 peak in the SOX. |
