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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation
WDC 150.92+8.5%3:59 PM EST

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To: KevRupert who wrote (19428)3/4/2001 9:18:58 AM
From: Art Bechhoefer  Read Replies (2) of 60323
 
The difference between SanDisk and Atmel is like day and night. Atmel is a newcomer to the flash memory business, but seems to be pushing its silicon germanium transistors as a better raw material. The company already has an EEPROM business, which is conceptually different from flash memory, but hopes to move into flash memory by essentially moving applications from EEPROM (very slow, high power consumption write speeds). The latest flash memory product from Atmel has a maximum capacity of 1 mb.

Aside from the technical features, Atmel also has filed with the SEC to increase its number of shares from 500 million to about 1.6 billion, or more than triple the present number of shares. Maybe this is the real reason why an analyst might recommend shorting Atmel. It has virtually nothing to do with the health of flash memory. It is one more example of faulty analysis reflecting little or no knowledge of the product and a predilection to lump every firm that makes anything that incorporates the word flash into one category, regardless of the prospects for the individual firm.

Regardless of the short term prospects for SanDisk and its particular flash memory niche, one can differentiate SanDisk from its competitors on one major characteristic: The company has little debt and a stock price that is only about 50 percent higher than its book value. In a period when one can assume at least some lag in sales growth, companies with little or no debt are able to withstand a slowdown and loss of earnings much better than companies with high debt.

When you hear someone make an idiotic recommendation about the whole flash memory sector, you can assume that the person (a) doesn't understand the products and (b) is ignoring individual company fundamentals.

Art Bechhoefer
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