First, a disclaimer: I am more or less an intuitive
Elliottician, and an eclectic one at that, with most of my
knowledge coming from a few basic texts plus reading
Prechter’s EWT and Hochberg’s x3 weekly Short Term
Updates for 2-3 years (plus playing with charts).
So, everything I say is only IM very HO.
Reading R .Prechter’s longer-term predictions can be depressing.
In brief, if he is right, we are screwed. If he is right, we are in
the early stage of a Grand Supercycle degree decline, which will
go on for many years, with ups and downs, but mostly down.
Is he right? Throughout the last year he was rather devilishly right.
The longer he remains right, the higher is the probability that he
will continue to remain on track. I passionately hope that he
is wrong. I would be surprised if he himself would not feel the
same way.
Generally speaking, the deterministic aspect of the Wave
Principle I find disturbing. On a very small scale, on intraday
charts, the waves become fuzzy, less reliable, loose their
predictive value. Maybe, in some sort of symmetry, at the other
extreme, the very long-term forecasts, are also more likely to be
less reliable. I would like to hope so.
Re-reading, it’s a somewhat somber post for an optimistic guy like me.
Sorry. Time, time will show.
AK |
