MDA - Market Direction Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 680.44

+0.6%

Dec 19 4:00 PM EST

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To: Psycho-Social who wrote (71219)	3/4/2001 9:40:20 PM
From: Shack	Read Replies (1) of 99985

I admire your methodical approach with these indicators. If you have found 10 years of reliable correlation with your indicators and the S&P, I would hesitate to question your conclusions. I guess the only thing that might derail this relationship is if these indicators suddenly change their extreme thresholds in secular bears (assuming we are entering one as I do). This would be the "underlying negative force" as you put it. A secular bear would likely produce different relationships than this 10 year slab: stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyimy[pb10!b20!b50!b200][vc60][iUc20!La12,26,9!Lf!Lh4,3] In terms of my 100% short position, I chalk that up to a cycle turn which isn't due to arrive until next week. We are indeed approaching a buyable low and I will be covering these positions over the next week in anticipation. Interestingly (or not), I am not carrying any tech shorts as I am starting to see some slight positive divergences in the accumulation indicators on the COMPQ. I have already taken all my profits there and have rolled into shorts in the other sectors. Cheers Shack

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