Lee,
Just got back, but have an hour before I have to leave again.
Previously I mentioned that the forthcoming rally in the NDX should take it back to the 2050-2300 region. The QQQ MAX-PAIN right now is at 50 which is about 2.5 QQQ points away, which is approximately equal to 100 NDX points which also supports a rally to 2000-2050 in the NDX.
Thats not a big rally, so what could push it a bit higher into the 2050-2300 region, and the MAX-PAIN in the OEX may help it some. The MAX-PAIN in the OEX 660 and the OEX right now is at 635, which is 25 points away. Due to this larger divergence with the OEX MAX-PAIN, such may help the NDX move a little higher than the 2000-2050 which the QQQ MAX-PAIN is targeting. Regardless, I am still expecting some sort of rally not, but do not expect it to be that strong. Following this small rally, I suspect another retest of the the most recent lows, and possibly LOWER LOWs, but not a whole lot more, at least not now.
As for this rally that may have started last THUR, the short-term key to watch is if last THUR's lows at 1838 hold.
I realise that some are expecting a strong/quick pop, and some may not consider this being a rally at all, but for now the NDX is already almost 100 points above last THUR's lows. Rallys now in the NDX may be of the grinding/slower type than the quick/strong pops that the market has been use to. |
