Re dell, aol, jdsu,qcom and bubbles
>> I really don't believe I will see another bubble in my lifetime. Maybe bio.<<
Those 4 stocks had one thing in common. They all went up 500 % or 1000% before going up 50,000, 45,000
or 20,000 % . There was plenty of warning to get on board, but no proof of further gains. And they were not 'falling knives', although thats not so relevant since the market was going up.
They were mostly very solid companies. ie. not IPO's
They also appeared to become very high priced and overvalued in the early days with Dell over $168/sh
Creating the illusion of great risk.
There will be another bubble, maybe bios, maybe aux power supplies. In this present insane market it will be hard to identify
Listening to Greenspan or discussing the world economy doesn't help at all in finding momentum stocks
and ruins ones concentration on the job to be done.
Summary:
When a new bubble develops, certain participating stocks will start going up so I think a good start
would be to look for some of those- considering first of all a substantial recent rise in price, then the companys financial basis and goals and potential for the market segment.
There will be enough apparent risk even in good days, without having the present market lack of direction so
there is no hurry to find the next boomers. Market bottoms and price floors are elusive devils
Sig (unwilling to risk much yet) |
