CMOS is way overvalued here IMO...
Here is a sampling of new estimates:
RSSF...2001 eps $0.00 forward p/e 1000000000000
GSCO....2001 eps $0.38 forward p/e 67
SBSH....2001 eps $0.19 forward p/e 137
Smallcap...2001 eps $0.10 forward p/e 256
These IMO will be revised DOWNWARD soon...
VTSS bounced because the company still expects some earnings for 2001 but the stock was at $65 when CMOS was at $25, so the little bounce today is not much of a factor...CMOS was expecting solid results following the 3rd Q 2001 (keep in mind that they already reported the 1st Q 2001)...Now companies are saying the slowdown is extending into 2002 which is far later that the expected turnaround at CMOS...Seems that the is more than overcapacity but actually a slowdown, so when CMOS finally warns again and I fully expect it longs will get crushed...
Here is the RSSF report for last Q:
Credence Systems Corporation
(Nasdaq: CMOS) $23.25 02/15/01
Long-Term Attractive
F2001E EPS: $0.00, down from $0.72
Sue Billat, Semiconductor Equipment/Foundries
Credence Systems reported FQ1 operating EPS of $0.27, beating our estimate by two pennies," said Billat. "Revenues of $123.2 million missed our estimate of $130.0 million due to weakness in bookings. FQ1 bookings fell steeply to $62 million down from $222 million in FQ4, leading to a book-to-bill ratio of 0.5. Including the cancellations of $43 million, the book to bill was 0.15. We believe IDMs are withdrawing orders from packaging houses, the core customer group for Credence, in order to balance their own in house utilization. Unlike the front end which continues to benefit from major technological drivers such as linewidth shrinks, transition to copper and the move to 300mm, the back end segment is primarily capacity driven. However, we expect the opportunities in flash testing to partially offset the weakness in mixed signal testers and help the company stay profitable for the fiscal year 2001. Given the weakness in the back-end equipment business driven by overbuilding in Taiwan, customers' inventory correction and end-market softness, we are reducing our F2001 EPS estimates to $0.00 (formerly $0.72) on revenues of $332.2 million (formerly $500 million). CMOS is trading at 1.7x book value, only slightly above its CY98 trough valuation. However, unlike in 1998-99 downturn when it lost $0.48 over four quarters, we expect the company to be unprofitable only in FQ3:01, breaking even for the fiscal year. Accordingly, we are maintaining our LTA rating on CMOS.>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Well Flash doesn't look so hot anymore so where is the $$$ going to come from??? |
