Credence (CMOS): Anyone out there Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Credence (CMOS): Anyone out there

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To: BWAC who wrote (473)	3/5/2001 3:30:58 PM
From: smallcapmaven	Read Replies (1) of 497

Yes way overvalued...CMOS has cash position is good but not great for a company sporting a $1.3B market cap...This is not a 'growth' company since the company is not expanding...The last few years marked a bull market where tech companies were far over capitalized...Since year over year comparisons will be so bad where is the value...Chip companies will be given more reasonable p/e's in the future IMO like other cyclicals (which they are)...Look for instance at DAL ($5.30 per share earnings in 2001)... Where is the value in CMOS??? I have a target price on CMOS of $12 to $14 a share because the company is not going to make money so their $225M in (cash AND investments) will evaporate rapidly...Book to Bill stinks and there are slowing sales...Book value is very arbitrary and I don't consider it of value in determining tech stocks (accounting) reasons...the current value is $736M before the bad Q's start happening...IMO this stock is way overvalued if it is 100% overvalued IMO... The cash is tangible but the value of receivables and investments and property are numbers that can change without notice at a rapid clip...Happens all the time...The real cash is less than $119M so hot air only floats balloons...The hope for no expansion in the American economic woes on a global scale is short sighted...Since Taiwan has such a volatile political position that is a further risk that does not apply to all the other companies in the sector... Look back I always post my position and I will short any rally in this stock because it is WAY OVERVALUED IMO...

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