I think Vic was right about the prospects of the company as it was then vs. as it is now. I believe he is correct in implying that the stock price doesn't reflect value that the company has added in the last few months. My own perception of where we stand is as follows. This is from a personal opinion only and I have not played this stock very smartly at all. I'm telling you this up front so that it puts things into perspective. Although I haven't posted alot, I have been very active buying this stock. On a few occasions (where I've had unresolved questions) I've talked with Helen and only once with Frank. I don't consider myself to understand all of the implications that could be made regarding their alliances and equipment. Obviously, I believe in the company or I would not have bought so many shares or participated in the PP. So the following is my take on the 'STOCK', not the COMPANY.
I know that the price decline has been attributed to Gandalf selling, the required quiet period with the S-1, Market Makers, overall market slide in micro-caps, traders skipping, etc., etc. I've contacted Wendy Burgess and Stella Dean from Gandalf's IR department and all that I've been able to get so far is that they still own 'some shares' and was told that they could not say whether they were still selling or not. I was asking from a stance of buying what they were selling. So, I'm still not sure what the status is. I am under the opinion that they are NOT the major cause for the price decline. As far as the 'quiet period' goes, there is no way for me to know how much effect this is having until it is over. What I mean is that until I see the releases and their effect on the stock price, its only speculation. With Peak's release of the 150,000 customers, (that seemed a nice way around the quiet period)ggg, it had virtually no effect on the price. It does seem to me that any alliances/partnerships that are yet unknown would still have a positive influence on the price. Word always, ALWAYS leaks out to a few from one side of the alliance or the other and in anticipation the price will develop upside wrinkles. I keep hoping to see this.
On every stock board I frequent blame is directed towards the MM's. I am not so naivŠ to believe they have nothing to do with it but at the same time, I don't think they are the major holdup. When this stock gets volume, it'll move. The slide in small-caps is IMO certainly a valid argument. Although, we still see select stocks scream in spite of the overall sector. Some have indicated that the "TRADERS" have affected the stock negatively. Mmmmm...I don't know. I wish I had been one. I started buying at 2 3/16, bought all the way up to 5+, all the way back down and today at 2 3/4. Obviously, I would be much richer if I had traded this stock. I have a rule of never taking more than a 10% loss and NEVER, NEVER let a gain turn into a loss. I broke both rules with this stock listening to others say don't trade this one. I am not blaming anyone for how I have played this stock other than MYSELF. I take full responsibility for my investing.
What I have learned (am learning) from all this is that each should follow his/her own rules and be disciplined enough to follow them.
Having already rambled on, this is how I think things will play out. Once the S-1 is approved, there is a reasonable chance for the price to dip. I personally think (although I haven't found anyone to agree with me) that many warrants will be exercised and those that do and have a cash shortage will be selling. There are over 2 million warrants out. This may present a buying opportunity. Beyond that obstacle, I believe/hope the price will rapidly increase due to the upcoming IPO of FNET. I would not be holding my shares if I didn't believe we'll be close to $10 by the end of the year. Of course, any News Releases will affect this scenario, up or down. My money is on UP. |
