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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 244.41

+0.6%

Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: ChrisJP who wrote (119363)	3/5/2001 6:31:05 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (6) of 164684

Don't confuse the NASDAQ bubble with a stock market bubble. The S&P 500 and DOW didn't participate in the bubble to the same degree as the NASDAQ did. The S&P 500 chart doesn't look anything like the Nikkei circa 1990 or the DJIA circa 1930. Yea, it's worse now. As measured by Market Capitalization / GDP, Price / Earnings, or market participation, this bubble far exceeds any previous bubble. It's irrelevant to talk of the 1974 recession because it wasn't a bubble. That was a plain old oil shock. We have healthcare COSTS (because it is a cost on an employer, ask'em) rising at phenomenal rates, we have enormous wage pressures due to the misallocation of employment due to the dot scams, and we continue to lack an energy policy. The trade deficit coupled with the quickly deteriorating fundamdentals is pointing to a capital outflows by foreigners and a run on the dollar. We've also lost $40,000 per person of stock market wealth and we have no personal savings. Don't get me started on the amount of leverage out here, particularly in off-balance-sheet derivative positions. People talk about the Japanese banking system being screwed up; sadly, they don't work in banking like I do and cannot attest to the many problems that will afflict banking in the coming years. This country is going to have to go through a lot of introspection before this bubble reflates. Will we have Great Depression numbers, no, automatic stablizers will take care of that. But it's not out of line to talk about a market that trades at a PE of 10 and a Nasdaq of PE 20. That's a 50% drop from here in both the Nasdaq and S&P 500.

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