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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 684.39+0.1%Dec 4 4:00 PM EST
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To: HairBall who started this subject3/5/2001 9:05:47 PM
From: jmootx  Read Replies (2) of 99985
 
From a great book that I read during the bubble run up

Michael O'Higgins, Beating the Dow With Bonds, 1998:

Market declines since 1961:

12/31/1961-6/26/1962..... 6.4 months..... -27.1%
2/09/1966-10/07/1966..... 8.0 " ......... -27.1%
12/03/1968-5/26/1968..... 17.8 " ......... -35.9%
1/11/1973-12/26/1974..... 17.2 " .........-45.1%
9/21/1976-2/28/1978 ...... 17.2 " .........-26.1%
4/27/1981-8/12/1982 ...... 15.5 " ......... -24.1%
8/25/1987-10/19/1987 .......1.8 " ..........-36.1%
7/16/1990-10/11/1990....... 2.8 " ..........-21.2%
average...............................11.5 " ..........-30.1%

Four of The Nifty Fifty in the 1973-74 bear:

Company.......1972-1973 high......1974 low....%declined

American Express.......64.75..........17.38.........-73.2%
Avon...........................140.00.........18.63.........-86.7%
Disney..........................112.38.........15.63.........-86.1%
Honeywell........................170.75.........17.50.........-89.8%

Todays Nifty:

Sun Micro has declined 72%, Cisco 74%, Nortel 80%, EMC 67%, Lucent 86%, Yahoo 92% and on and on

1973-74 we had an energy crises, inflation, deep recession, devalued dollar from the gold standard mess, budget deficit from a lost war in Vietnam. Nixon resigning.....

Anybody still think you should be short?????
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