Rob
so you really see solar as the most dependable source for growing energy going forward?
Thanks. Solar is a great energy source when you consider the advantages of "distributed generation" -- the energy is clearly generated at the source, so if one has space (rooftop, siding, parking shade structures) for panels, one has the potential to generate electricity from the sun. As for "dependable", solar is quite dependable within some clear limitations. First, the power is generated when the sun shines, and power is proportional to the intensity of the sun. So the peak production occurs during the middle of the day (when demand is highest, especially for summertime in hot climates). The flip side: you need energy storage (today, batteries) to save some of the juice for hours of darkness. The sun comes up every day, and though power production varies with clouds and sun angle, I understand that some people in Seattle and AK even find them useful; also, a company called SolarCentury sells solar PV rooftop shingles in London and the UK. Solar PV is one technology with a present (market was ~$2B last year) and future (growing at ~38% annually).
For reference, 10,000 square miles of Si panels in NV would generate the electric power used within the US.
Wind is already much bigger, and much cheaper. It will likely get more air-time (sorry), and probably rightfully so. I don't like the implications of huge wind mill installations -- I am told they are very noisy, and there's a well-recognized avian problem (raptors love to nest on or around them, but then get slammed by the turbines). But hey, I understand that wind energy is economically competitive with natural gas electricity. There's a Danish company (Vestas, I think) that makes the turbines, and they have cleaned up in the market the past couple years. Denmark gets 10% of their electricity from wind.
do you see the energy concerns i cited as being a drag on either the us econ or stock market going forward?
Yes, very possibly. CA has been one of the first states to restructure their power industry, and the going has obviously been rocky at best. The director (Jan Hamrin) of the Center For Resource Solutions ( resource-solutions.org ) spoke recently at NREL on: "The California Power Crisis and its Effects on Renewable Energy" -- very interesting to hear about all of the things that came together to bring CA to its present situation. In her opinion, the developments have spelled the end for renewables for the consumer market, which is very unfortunate. Essentially, the ground they had gained with enabling consumers to choose "green-electricity" has been lost.
She pointed out that two years after deregulating and opening the market for consumers to choose, 2% had switched away from the traditional supplier. That's not much, but a higher % than switched within two years of opening up long distance. But now the "green electricity" is not even an option for most in the state. And the prospects for true free-market pricing of energy are poor near-term. Americans are used to the "almost-free" model of electricity, and hate the concept of energy as a limited resource whose price fluctuates.
At any rate, for the economy and the market, the hurt will most likely come from pricing as opposed to availability. While Jan worries that other states may suffer similar problems in restructuring, I hope they can learn from CA and avoid the pitfalls which have led to (1) insufficient generation capacity and (2) insufficient transmission capacity. I have no idea how energy costs will behave over the coming decade, but up is the obvious direction to expect.
I've heard from several sources that our peak for global oil production will occur around 2010 or 2015, so we'd better begin to address the problems from a more realistic standpoint sometime before then. One can say there'll always be more oil, but the costs will be rising while energy demand rises.
Jan did suggest that residential solar will likely remain popular (which is what AstroPower's CEO said will drive the market for cells and panels) in CA. She added, however, that the power companies appear to plan steep prices for on-demand power used by grid-connected residences with solar PV. Unfortunate since grid-connection allows one to sell any excess capacity to the grid during peak production, and buy back during cheaper nighttime hours.
I don't even yet own a home, but when I do, I'll be looking for some well-situated south-facing roof area. |
