Now I have a problem (some say I always have had).
This is being thrown out for discussion, as I will be talking to a few pals about to today - it might well end up as a discussion piece in a mag somewhere. Your input welcome.
I have been pretty happy with how 3G is developing, however I now see soem very dark clouds indeed on the horizon. Some have questioned what is 4G, well so far I have heard a couple of vying visions: (1) new "burst" technologies (don't ask yet) and (2) the mesh of various technologies.
It's number 2 that before I found great, but now I see as a huge problem for operators. It also brings in the question of auctioning licenses (never a fan, but thought they must know what they were doing) and at the same time makes so called 3G as the poor cousin of the solution. Keep with me here.
The vision has always been PAN, LAN and WAN together - combination that ensured total connectivity. In most developed nations around the world people live in metropolitan areas and their suburbs. So in the longer term the LAN may become more prevalent, with 3G WAN technologies pushed out beyond metropolitan areas (covering the sticks). I saw a post on one of the Qcom threads about Ericsson's BLIP solution, based on Bluetooth. As such, they are looking at supplying a server based Bluetooth solution to commercial centres or individual shops. As one quote I found states (http://www.ericsson.com/infocenter/news/BLIP.html), "I think the most exciting thing with BLIP is that it delivers immediate information, relevant to the user, at a certain location – and, it's free of charge."
And from the same webpage - Here are some examples: You're on a train heading for Paris and you want to know where a museum is. "Blip" and the information is in your palm. You walk by a shop and want the price and availability of an item in the window. "Blip" and you have the information – even though the shop is closed. You pass a billboard and want to know more about the product advertised. As long as you're within a 10-meter radius, the information is at your disposal.
Now that was what many saw as almost killer apps for cellular solutions, yet BLIP overs hundreds of kbps and it is free (2.4 GHz band). Okay, so you'll need milions to cover a city. Well why not? Who has taken the Arlanda express from Arlanda airport to Stockholm? You can get Bluetooth connection all the way.
Even if not, HiperLAN2 has been proposed for 3G 'hotspots', this too is free spectrum (5GHz) and offers up to 54 Mbps. Now HiperLAN2 is being offered to operators, but also it could be offered to any content provider anywhere.
With Bluetooth and HiperLAN2 you could cover the most important part of an operator's network, where most value is garnered. Bluetooth and HiperLAN2 are expected in volume later this year to early next (2002).
This makes WAN 3G the poor cousin for operators, one which they paid billions to get - so where's the logic in that? In th emedium to long term we may have to question the value of whatever wideband CDMA is deployed. There is never any long term with wireless technology anyway (max 20 years).
Your views welcome. If need be, send it to my email account therealorangepeel@yahoo.com
Cheers,
M |
