Re: North American Broadband Stats - CM and DSL Residential RHK
Thread- Another view of residential broadband stats for North America. These stats out of RHK seem to correlate with the stats out of Kinetic Strategies that transmission posted upstream (see who wrote above). These 2000 stats have surpassed estimates previously given for 2000. I would hate to think how low the equipment companies market caps would be if they had not surpassed predictions for 2000!?
elmatador- Maybe DSL equipment companies and DSL CLECs are dead, but the number of subscribers signing up overall seem to be doing well. Could it be the real problem in DSL land is extremely low, low, low margins. The ILEC's can't have any of their vendors making any money can they.<g> -MikeM(From Florida)
______________________
New Report by RHK Predicts 71% CAGR for Residential DSL Over the Next Four Years
Cable Modems No Longer Dominate the Broadband Market
SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO, Calif.--March 6, 2001-- Residential DSL service in North America will grow from 2.2 million users in 2000 to 18.6 million users by 2004, according to a new report by leading telecom market research firm, RHK, Inc.
According to the report, Access Network Systems Digital Subscriber Line: North American xDSL Market Forecast, ADSL (asymmetrical digital subscriber line) will capture 50 percent of the residential broadband market by 2004, growing at a CAGR of 71 percent. RHK's new report also examines the SDSL (symmetrical digital subscriber line) market and finds that the SDSL market will grow, but at a slower rate than ADSL.
ADSL is the main competitor to cable modems for residential users. At the close of 2000, broadband cable modem users numbered 5.1 million, with ADSL users weighing in at 2.2 million. RHK's report attributes the rapid growth of the residential broadband market to telecommuting, growing availability of multimedia content (e.g. Napster and streaming media) and improving subscriber economics.
``Cable has previously dominated broadband because modems were deployed eighteen months earlier than ADSL technology,'' states Kelly Dougherty, Analyst at RHK, Inc. ``However, we believe that ADSL is a worthy opponent and will gain ground over the next few years.'' Carriers are responding to the strong consumer demand by increasing their DSL footprints. ``In 2000, only 50 percent of homes were eligible for service. SBC's Project Pronto and other carriers' initiatives to serve customers through remote terminals will allow over 70 percent of homes to receive DSL by 2004.''
RHK's new report also examines the role of SDSL in the broadband market. Targeted at the business user, SDSL provides greater bandwidth but has greater distance limitations than ADSL. RHK's report forecasts that the number of SDSL subscribers will increase from 555,000 users in 2000 to 2.6 million users by 2004. SDSL faces competition from established fractional T1 and full-rate T1 services. Incumbent local exchange carriers (ILECs) have significantly lowered the price of T1, thus making them more attractive to business users.
The report also finds that carrier equipment purchases increased markedly in 2000, but RHK does not expect this trend to continue. Dougherty states, ``Equipment purchases have outdistanced the number of subscribers. Even with the strong demand for DSL, carriers need to reckon with excess capacity. As a result, the volume of central office based equipment purchases will drop significantly, beginning in 2001.'' |
