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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: LLCF who wrote (75924)3/6/2001 9:51:50 AM
From: rolatzi  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
The opening was so strong that it is unlikely to not close off the bottoms. I will venture a heretical guess that we are in a new leg of the bear market.

We will continue up into the next Federal Reserve meeting and will start a new leg down at or after the rate cut (be it 25 or 50 basis points, i don't know). At that time we will test 1850 again on the NDX. Depending on how 1st quarter warnings come in, we will either hold at 1850 or pierce it and test 1450. At 1450 there is a lot of support.

It will take time to determine whether the Fed rate cuts plump up the economy and how bad the second half of the year will be. It will also take time to know whether OPEC is effective in maintaining the price of oil. If oil prices go below their bands of 22-28 for a period of time, it will be very positive for both inflation numbers and for consumers. IMHO, we are going into a time of chronic shortness in energy supplies but we could see a temporary significant decline in energy prices going in the second quarter.

rolatzi
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