re: GPRS in US - Someday
VoiceStream - Cingular - AWS
"God Send Mobiles"
>> VoiceStream's GPRS Waiting Game
By Margo McCall
March 5, 2001
Wireless Week
wirelessweek.com
VoiceStream Wireless has spent the past eight months preparing its network for GPRS. The Internet protocol backbone is complete. The software is being finalized. The content deals are set. Only one question remains: Where are the handsets?
The nation's sixth-largest national carrier is in the same boat as Cingular Wireless, which expected to launch friendly trials on its GPRS network in two California markets this month and now is waiting for Ericsson to deliver its 520 tri-mode phones.
John Stanton, CEO of the Bellevue, Wash.-based Voice-Stream, told analysts during the company's fourth-quarter conference call that although GPRS handsets are in development, he's concerned that not enough will be available for a commercial launch. "It always takes longer and costs more than you think it will," he said. "It is our understanding that those handset delays are common to everyone else."
Motorola already is shipping its Timeport 260 to carriers in Europe, and the company recently announced four other GPRS handsets: the Accompli 008, which features handwriting recognition; a tri-mode phone called the V66; the V120, which has advanced messaging; and the Talkabout 192, which offers icons and predictive text.
Mitsubishi and Ericsson still are testing their GPRS phones, and Nokia and Samsung are scheduled to introduce their models at the end of next quarter, when many European and Asian carriers plan commercial launches.
But the rollout of GPRS devices is not expected to come off without a hitch. Equipment compatibility, international roaming and handset availability were among the problems highlighted at a forum held in Rome last November. European operators BT Cellnet, Sonera and Omnitel already have launched limited GPRS service, but according to a Lehman Brothers report, carriers planning GPRS rollouts later this year believe they will be limited by slow speeds and the small selection of terminals. Similar reports came out of the recent 3GSM World Congress in Cannes, France, with commercial GPRS rollouts being postponed until later this year or in 2002 as European operators shift their focus to profitability rather than subscriber growth.
Manufacturers of wireless devices reportedly have been slow to embrace the new technology due to concerns that there is not adequate demand. But Bryan Prohm, wireless analyst with Dataquest, believes that by not delving more enthusiastically into GPRS, handset makers are missing out on a prime opportunity to capture new market share.
Competition in the entire handset sector is picking up. According to fourth-quarter reports from Dataquest, Nokia commands 33.9 percent of the market, Motorola has 12.7 percent, and Ericsson has 8.7 percent. A number of smaller companies are jostling for the No. 3 position due to Ericsson's problems with its money-losing handset division.
Behind the top three are Siemens, which now has 6.7 percent of the market, followed by Panasonic with 5 percent, Samsung with 4.8 percent and Alcatel with 4.6 percent. At least a half-dozen other companies have smaller shares.
The question of exactly when so-called 2.5-generation service will take hold is being partially blamed for this year's uncertainty in the handset market. Handset makers have scaled back global sales projections for 2001 to between 500 million and 520 million units from previous estimates of 555 million to 575 million. If GPRS isn't readily embraced, those projections could be cut back again.
With carriers already spending millions of dollars to build out third-generation networks, it is crucial that GPRS launches are successful. Lehman Brothers' equipment analyst Phillipe Schmitt, in his report on challenges associated with GPRS, says soft launching the new technology to high-value corporate customers is a good strategy, since there will be an initial shortage of handsets.
It often pays to be first to market, but that may not be the case with GPRS rollouts in the United States. VoiceStream executives expect GPRS handsets to be widely available by next year - not quite soon enough to help companies launching service next quarter. <<
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