xcar,
have had the same thot myself, but the carnage in the industrial manufact. sector gives the lie to the idea of a limited downturn.
one thing that puzzles me is these tiny, fleeting little hints we keep getting of consumer spending being better than anticipated. it is the momentary fly in the ointment for the full-fledged bear scenario. areas of unseeming strength seem to keep popping up, causing me to take my finger off the trigger.
as for real estate, housing, being strong, well, i think it is just the home of the next inflation and may be the last brick to fall out of the wall.
i trust two things right now. one is that folks want tech to rally, and rally it will, and i am riding the tiger with tight stops. i get stopped out of one posit., up 5 or 10%, i just look into my watch lists and see what is moving hard on good vol. with a lower p/e - don't anybody tell me low multiples are meaningless, they are meaningful to retail buyers, and i buy a little of that. the other thing i trust is that this is all the greatest of foolishness in the l.t., but gkw the l.t. term means in a span of months, or years. this bubble hasn't quite popped; it is very ductile and keeps slip-sliding away to reform somewhere else, just when you thot it was gone.
i have blathered too long. my grin is huge - for the moment.
don |
