Thoughts about the market while inputting #s into spreadsheets....for taxes....
My accountant told me I made 100% on my $ this year, and that I should be giving lessons, as the only clients of his that did that did so by shorting (I don't short and don't really think I'll learn. Unless you call selling puts and covered calls shorting). That was a shock as my paper profits went spiralling down. I was certain I had sustained big losses but they were paper losses. Moreover, in the heady hayday of making that $ 12-16 months ago, I had a good time spending some of it too. So I am certainly "broke" right now. However, as a relatively new investor (in recent years--before that I'd buy a stock or fund and look at it six months later) I really learned a lot this year.
I don't know that we'll get another bubble soon--but then again you never know. We have to take into account that so many people do trade online and are actively investing or moving their $ around. It's quite possible with a few tax cuts we'll see a stampede to the upside--or not. One just never knows. But I suspect the market will continue to be very manic depressive in shorter cycles than previous years/decades
But even if we don't get manic again any time soon, watching the market gyrations has taught me a better approach to the market. Also learning from experience, hard knocks, and from trying different approaches--options, daytrading/scalping stocks etc. There was a time I was more interested in the market than writing, but I now think it should be an avocation if a serious one. That I will continue earning my living from writing, which gives satisfaction anyway, then I will not be playing with either euphoric or scared $. I found the latter too tedious, I can't stand watching 5 minute bars. OTOH...I think buy-writing at the low end of the channel is a good tactic lately...and later...one could even resume trading calls if the market gets bullish again. Discipline is the key: I think swing or position trading suits me the best. I don't trust the market any longer for long term buy and hold over years. My main problem is still my emotions, and I think that's because I got too caught up in the market. I've learned from many on this thread, and also, from Teresa Lo (lurqer quoted her recently). Her technical analysis is very objective and helpful. She always waits for retests. Her patience is a good guide. |
