Everybody knows the negative news - it's pounded into us everyday. You've got to figure anyone who still owns tech is hard-core, die-hard, own-it-till I die holder. Then again maybe it's "wait till NASDAQ 3000 then unload this shit". Whatever. I am accumulating daily positive notes and intend to post them here, for my own benefit, if nothing else. They may seem lame but we are talking keeping sanity here. The overriding assumption is that the demand for bandwidth will increase - not evenly, but it will increase:
1. In 3/5/01 issue of IBD noting that Sprint, who is CIEN's major customer, is fiber poor and raising spending 51%, while WCOM, who is NT's major cust, is "fiber rich" and is reducing cap-ex. Question - what happens when Sprint catches up with WCOM? Sprint's network will be superior - think WCOM raises cap-ex to enable it to compete effectively?
2. In 3/6/01 issue of IBD - several growth fund managers are starting (?) to shift from old-tech (GTW, MOT) to new tech (JDSU, GLW etc.) Adams of Choice Focus says "In the past, when hot market sectors collapsed, like the drug sector in the 80's, it took a decade for drug stocks to come back. But tech is different. It is too much the driver of growth of the economy to stay dead for long"
3. My utility stock newsletter recommended Broadwing convertibles. The newsletter states Broadwing's state-of the-art network as the enabler in the 81% rise in EBITDA. Think competitors will notice? Think competitors will duplicate that network?
4. Given the current inventory glut, CFO's are using this time to lower expectations and clean up their balance sheets. There is not a lot for them to lose now with their stocks in the toilet anyway. |
