Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 230.92

+3.1%

Nov 24 3:59 PM EST

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To: Sam Citron who wrote (43249)	3/6/2001 6:19:17 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Sam, We were in a semi-equip up cycle that started in 1999 and rocketed up in 2000. The stock market tech bubble burst and there is a major inventory and production level adjustment in technology. Semi-equip sales and orders have started to fall and they seem to be validating the price drop. I believe that there are two scenarios, "pay me now or pay me later." The pay me now scenario drops semi equip sales and orders throughout 2001 and into 2002 and I get my prices in 2001. The pay me later scenario allows semi equip sales and orders to rise by Q3 and the up cycle continues through 2002 and into 2003. Semi-equip prices rise to 80-100% of 2000 highs. In mid 2003, I get my prices. I am less confident about getting my prices for ALTR and XLNX, and even less for LLTC and MXIM.

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