Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 267.87

-0.6%

Dec 5 9:30 AM EST

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To: 16yearcycle who wrote (43259)	3/6/2001 9:33:56 PM
From: A.L. Reagan	Read Replies (1) of 70976

I traded back in to join Jacob on the near-term SS of AMAT today when it started churning down from 51, hit it at $50-3/8. Looked a lot like a double top when it couldn't take out February 15 (today looked like a virtual replay of 2/15). Also SS DELL today. Both trading plays, based on what I perceive to be irrationally premature optimism. A poster here PM'd me a very instructive chart on the relationship between the book-to-bill rate of change, and stock prices of AMAT, and it appears there is a bit of time between now and whenever the stock turns up. W/r/t Andy Grove, he is probably spot on in defending increasing capex during a downtown from a LT strategic standpoint, but WS can only see a few quarters out. To rack up big numbers I think the AMAT's of the world need new fabs coming on line. Now, I understand that technology upgrades aren't exactly chump change to AMAT, but I question whether they are sufficient to really drive the stock. (Plus the houses have been out in force this week cheerleading both the semis and the equips, and that's a good sign the ST bloom may fall off the rose quickly.) Will use trailing stops to protect profits same as last time out.

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