Watch out to the analog semi companies -
They may not make good shorts. Check out Linear Tech (LLTC) - they have $800 million in slaes,
>50% margins and over $800 million in CASH. They could build a little inventory to ride out most of the summer.
Maxim has cash too.
TSMS and Intel have fabs in Oregon, but they have fabs all over.
Migration > That's a killer for semi companies - Huge investment, big depreciation charges for about 3-4 years, higher personel expense for years to debug the fab AND the new processs, AND there's too much capacity on the market (from the larger wafers) at the same time. Also, if the new process is different from your old processes, you may not be able to move products quickly to the new process - so the fab isn't filled for months...
My guess is that Intel, TSMC, IBM, can migrate pretty well. TI, NEC, Micron, and maybe AMD might manage well
also. Everybody else will have a very painful time.
I think the best individual short might communications chip companies, like Broadcomm and PMC / Sierra.
Unfortunately, they've already taken their big hit. Prehaps if they rise enough... |
