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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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To: HairBall who started this subject	3/7/2001 12:55:37 AM
From: Doug	Read Replies (1) of 99985

My consistent theme since Dec has been that the Engine driving the TECH's was The Telecom Service sector. The engine stalled last year and the rest of the train is now losing inertia and coming to a halt. Today, nearly 50% of all Semi, RDRAM's , ASIC's,PLDS and Flash are used in Communications. The TECH recovery is absolutely linked to the health of its ailing engine which is being neglected by the media. There are just 3 possible scenarios to restore the engine. a: Cannibalize parts ( This means mergers of the Telecoms , downsizing, and reengineering ; feasible but long.) b: Refuel the Engine thru extensive Govt assistance in terms of Tax concessions. ( Not likley) c: Arm twist the FCC to institute pay/call as in other Countries or raise rates by 30%. for Broad/narrow band. (feasible and quick) The TECH's will be on hold/decline till the Telco service engine is healthy and able to pull once again. It is as simple as that.

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