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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 269.38

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (43271)	3/7/2001 9:12:46 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (1) of 70976

>>. And, if Intel does spend what they say they are in 2001 on capex, then the problem just gets worse: inventories, capacity utilization, margins, etc., will all go the wrong way, as long as capacity is added in the current market environment. << Except it's not quite that simple. What will demand be in 18 months when the new fabs come on line? If it stays stagnant, then all the problems you mention occur. But if it goes up, and Intel doesn't build the fabs, then AMD eats their lunch. Which is one of the reasons for the wild swings in the semiconductor industry. Adding capacity takes longer than the accurate forecast horizon. Katherine

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