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Technology Stocks : Network Appliance

NTAP 114.14

-1.3%

Dec 15 3:59 PM EST

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To: SecularBull who wrote (6874)	3/7/2001 9:24:49 AM
From: DownSouth	Read Replies (1) of 10934

Good to hear. I believe that EMC's customer base will continue to expand with add on orders. They will be loyal much as IBM's mainframe base. New customers will be faced with a decision between EMC and NTAP. (NTAP's sales force does not focus on its installed base. They need very little attention. They are after new customers, so the likelihood of NTAP showing up as often as EMC does in new opportunities is very high, imo.) The total cost of ownership (TCO) study and the customer testimonials that NTAP has to offer will be very compelling. I expect NTAP to increase its current 75%-80% win rate over EMC well into the 90% range. Thus, EMC will grow from its own base, but its growth with new customers will be much less than NTAP's. This will not become evident from the numbers that EMC publishes for a while. If (big if) EMC's growth begins to disappoint, it will not be evident that that is going to happen for a few quarters. When and if it becomes apparent, it will loom large all of a sudden. That's the nature of disruptive innovation and the games that are played to avoid its effects.

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