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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis
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To: JRI who wrote (2180)3/7/2001 10:35:33 AM
From: Paul Shread  Read Replies (3) of 52237
 
Obviously, the COMPX was way way overvalued at 5000, but the 60% drop since then matched its '73-'74 bear, the unravelling of the last big bubble. Interesting to note that last March, the underperformance of value to growth was at its widest since 1972.

The COMPX may be reforming the 1990 trendline, at a level about 13% lower than the previous line. I don't know what exact annual rate of return that trendline represents, but it's probably gone from 25-30% a year to 20-25% a year; much more sustainable if your 25% long-term growth predictions hold up. We'll probably get a lower growth rate than that over the next year or two, maybe 10-15%, but who knows. AG claims that inventories are being unwound at a rapid rate.

Would like to know the PE of the Nasdaq at the 1350 bottom in Oct. 1998; so many unprofitable companies were dumped on the public markets in 1999-2000 that I don't know how you could calculate anything from the current PE ratios.
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