Well.... for now it seems that your CIEN and my BRCD plays seem to be holding the line after an early scare...
--------(edit: well... not quite there yet, they seem to be bouncing as I wrote this)---------
Other plays going well...
ADBE now we are entering the "time-decay-tighlight-zone" and that will work just like magic -g-
QCOM my calls have turned into an unexpected success... (for now) however... I got trapped with a partial position on QCOM (the underlying)... well, there is always April options to sell, the volatility is large enough that they will take them away from me at a comfortable profit -GG-.
This of course assumes we do not crash from here... then I am toast on this play.
This brings me to a concept I read yesterday in one of the Worden comments: (3-6-01)
The market hates to do the obvious. Thus, some of the responses to Alan's antics are often the opposite of what you would expect. Or it will respond appropriately, even gleefully, and then give it back the next day. It has been ignoring the widespread notion that we had to have a huge shakeout to spring a rally, but we've often pointed out that it isn't necessary. Wimpy bottoms are actually more common, although there are often high volume selling climaxes ahead of that.
Anyway, the breadth was excellent today in virtually all sectors. Breakaway gaps in generals like DELL and SUNW is a type of thing we haven't seen for a long time. We don't know whether this is the bottom, but it certainly could be. The prospects of a very good rally with some legs are bright. We feel just about the same as we did last Thursday when we wrote as follows.
But you can have too much patience. Remember what you get paid for in the market? You get paid for taking risks. The market has no sure things to offer. The would-be sure things usually turn out to be unconscionably expensive. The time to take a risk is when you are not sure what is going to happen, but if something good happens you will be well remunerated. And if something very good happens, you will clean up. And if something bad happens, you don't stand to lose much. This is such a time.
Of course... all within measure, we hope . |
