Gas stocks seen exploding to upside
Analyst says Shell bid for Barrett 'changes everything'
By Susan Lerner, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 4:07 PM ET Mar 7, 2001
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- While consumers have recently complained about higher natural gas prices, investors in the group have reaped the rewards.
Back in January, however, when gas prices peaked, Jefferies analyst Frank Bracken had downgraded a group of natural gas stocks in anticipation of a possible softening during the "shoulder period" in April and May when there is little demand for heat or air conditioning.
But now, Royal Dutch Shell's (RD: news, msgs, alerts) offer to buy Barrett (BRR: news, msgs, alerts) "changes everything" Bracken said and he is restoring his "buy" rating on the stocks, all of which had been downgraded to "accumulate" in January.
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"The sheer fact that a highly regarded company like Shell would take such an aggressive posture speaks volumes about Shell's thoughts regarding the future of natural gas prices in the United States," Bracken said as he upgraded Anadarko Petroleum (APC: news, msgs, alerts) , Cabot Oil & Gas (COG: news, msgs, alerts) , Evergreen Resources (EVG: news, msgs, alerts) , EOG Resource (EOG: news, msgs, alerts) , Newfield Exploration (NFX: news, msgs, alerts) , Spinnaker Exploration (SKE: news, msgs, alerts) , Swift Energy (SFY: news, msgs, alerts) and Vintage Petroleum (VPI: news, msgs, alerts) .
"Investors can throw caution to the wind because they no longer have to worry about short-term dips," Bracken told CBS.MarketWatch.com.
"These stocks are now "screaming buys," he said. "There are now major short term opportunities in domestic natural gas."
The Shell/Barrett transaction would be the third where a major oil company bought U.S. natural gas reserves, Bracken said. The others were made by Occidental Petroleum (OXY: news, msgs, alerts) and Pennaco Energy (PN: news, msgs, alerts) , both of which purchased companies with coalbed methane potential.
Based on that history, Bracken's focus in the sector is Evergreen Resources because, he said, it is the purest remaining coalbed methane play. It also has a lot of room for upside since its price is significantly below the prices paid in the other two deals, Bracken noted.
As for Barrett/Shell, Bracken believes Shell will be very aggressive in its efforts and that the likelihood is very high that it will succeed in its bid for Barrett.
News of the bid propelled the AMEX Natural Gas Index to a 6.4 percent gain. All of the stocks upgraded by Bracken were higher, led by Evergreen, which was up $4.66, or 13 percent to $39.76 in afternoon trading after hitting a new high of $40.24 earlier in the session
Susan Lerner is a reporter for CBS.MarketWatch.com. |
