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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor

GDXJ 87.56

-4.9%

Nov 4 4:00 PM EST

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To: goldsheet who wrote (65071)	3/7/2001 4:46:36 PM
From: PAUL ROBERTSON	Read Replies (2) of 116752

it is the perception, wether real or not, that the market remains tight, that will send this market higher. Lease rates are only a tool and they do indicate for the time being a continuing tightness. Short positions will likely only help make the market a better ride down the road. Commercials were long all the way down from $400 and that fact alone should make anyone wary in following just that factor. Think about it, who in their right mind is going to go out and open a commodity account just to buy some gold futures? The odd person will but it is much easier to just pick up the phone and buy some gold funds or gold stocks. Futures are just paper and i have seen many thousands of future contracts bought and sold just to get "the business" or to basis trade. 90%+ is almost immediately offset. i believe it is the wide scale perception that gold is tight that is moving the gold stocks now. The xau could go to 100 even if the price of gold stayed at $260. Kind of an uncomfortable situation for those that are short. This alone could cause an even tighter market to develop.

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