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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Michael Watkins who wrote (76828)3/7/2001 6:50:58 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (2) of 436258
 
on the contrary - diabolical would be a HUGE decline, starting tomorrow...it would catch the maximum number of people unawares, as it has lately become extremely wide spread practice for the prominent BEARS to call for a short term trading bottom...essentially joining the perma bull set in this assertion, for no other reason than the market being 'oversold' or x standard deviations below some moving average. it seems to me that the lessons learned during the bull market have been rapidly unlearned now that the bear finally knocks at the door, as if the bears still can't believe their luck in the face of the worst decline of a US stock index since 1930 (obviously applies only to the curb mark...err, Nasdaq, so far).
the lesson of the bull/bubble was the futility of trying to pick the top, and the market defying every bit of historical upper boundary in terms of valuation, or any other historical yardstick one might have wanted to apply during its relentless rise.

a quarterly chart of the SnP illustrates this nicely:

charts-d.quote.com:443/983910051970?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=INDEX:SPX.X&Interval=Q&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=0&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=10&BgColor=0.255.0&TBgColor=0.255.0

we are nowhere near the extremes one might expect to the downside as a corollary to the extremes seen on the upside(i realize this comment is out of context regarding short term expectations).
anyway, now that Harpo has once again endorsed a continuation of the bubble (after several failed attempts in the recent past), joining the newly converted bears, we have finally nearly everybody who is somebody sitting in the same boat, and looking up.
perfect time for a...mass correlated hyper volatility illiquidity event! -g-

a.k.a. LLCF.

of course i still don't know what the news actually were like....but my twisted cynical bear view of the world informs me that they MUST have been middling at best, and more likely awful....
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