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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: UnBelievable who wrote (76863)3/7/2001 8:09:48 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
IP's p/e is a cycle bottom p/e, as its earnings should be lowest at the bottom of the paper biz cycle ...only IF the cycle has bottomed of course.

an argument can be made that barring a further deterioration in cyclical companies earnings, the present value of future earnings streams should be higher due to falling interest rates.

all this is however invalid if the k-winter is beginning...a marker we have to be on the look-out for: a failure of the rally in the cyclicals would be an additional piece of evidence that the k-winter is on. marker number one is the failure of recent rate cuts to spark a stock market recovery.

the Dow is by no means 'cheap' though, no matter where we are in the k-cycle.
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