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Technology Stocks : Wolf speed

WOLF 19.46

-0.2%

3:59 PM EST

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To: MARK BARGER who wrote (5152)	3/8/2001 7:40:14 AM
From: unclewest	Read Replies (3) of 10714

i am a realist...i like to look at where things are today...but when investing, i look at today and the future. this is how i see cree now. cree is in the third Q of 2001....the numbers so far are 37 million 42 million now predicting 45 million for this quarter and 15% less or 38 million for 4th quarter. this totals 162 million for 2001 vs 108 million last year or about +50%. earnings last year were $0.42 vs forecasted $0.68 this year or +60%. they went on and forecast 200-240 million for fy 2002 or revenue growth of 25-50%. earnings are going to be 17, 18, 18 and 15 or $0.68 for this year and are forecasted to be $0.68 to $0.82 next year. nothing has really changed from the conference call where cree clearly indicated a lower booking level for the fourth Q. at $20 a share, cree's current PE based on fy 2001 earnings of 0.68 is 30. 2002 revenue growth of 25-50% is outstanding....earnings growth of 0-20% is not. it means cree expects margins to head lower. cree said in the release that LED sales are under pressure... RF devices are out there but there are no reports of orders. the SiC based laser and power devices are still vaporware. cree has enormous intellectual property...the senior staff has been chasing SiC for 20 years...my best guess right now is cree gets bought out within a year. if the various sub divisions start getting meaningful sales, the buyout scenario could change to one of spin-offs. in the meantime, until cree can demonstrate RF sales, things are going to be weak. imo either the laser or power devices will be needed to get cree back to the old highs. i attended the AGM...what happened to cree cubed? uw

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