Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis

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To: Paul Shread who wrote (2281)	3/8/2001 10:13:22 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) of 52237

Paul, let me keep playing devil's advocate for a moment.....Sketchy analogy: Dot.com was to big-name tech as big-name tech is now to the Dow... Most analysts thought the damage in the dot.com world would have a limiting effect on most big-name tech (revenue/earnings/stock price)....we heard constant pronouncements that dot.com's only made up 5-10% of sales....demand strong enough in other areas to make up for it....etc...obviously, the chain effect was much greater than 1st assumed (even Yahoo got it wrong.....and underestimated how much biz they could attract from other sources to make up for vaccuum of dot.com sales).. Right now, Dow companies are telling you things are going to be OK (sales, revenues) this year? But will they really? With the virtual lock-up in tech now.....that certainly affects some banks, and consumer spending.....and what affects some banks..eventually affects all banks (given the interlocking, incestuous relationships).....on another thread, an article was posted on how banks are now "marketing-to-market" credit line rates...in order to make up for losses/fewer profits in other areas....who get's hurt the most when the borrowing costs on lines of credit go up? Hmmmm.. Japan is a nightmare.....Europe is saying "we haven't seen any signs of weakness yet".....Europe still has not felt export-drag of higher Euro..... Perhaps I'm missing something here...but I don't see the fundamental case for a recovery in cyclicals in the Dow yet.....just think this is flight-to-safety, "I've gotta put my money somewhere" stuff.....not, as NY Prez McDonough just said, "a sign that a 2nd half recovery is coming"... Naz falling into gap now...could be interesting...

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