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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems-Trading Strong Earnings Growth and Momentum
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To: Ron who wrote (6048)3/8/2001 10:39:38 AM
From: Christopher Loe   of 6445
 
Picked up 10 contracts, DUDPO at 5 this morning. This market IMHO, is not going to continue to rally, if one can call this a rally at all. Just look at the put\call ratio, I think this tells a lot about how often the majority of Wallstreet is dead wrong.

All my business customers I have spoken with in the last month have all told me three things: business fell off a cliff in November without warning, they recently laid off workers & they don't see a recovery until next year. In addition, an owner of a custom molding manufacturer stated that he believes we are sitting on an inflation bubble. The only prices they been able to raise to their customers in the last 18 months has been material costs, while the burden labor rate has increased along with energy, wage & insurance costs to name a few. Marginal companies will be forced out of business & all the rest will be forced to pass along the higher expenses they have been swallowing for so long. I asked him how long this could take & he said he didn't really know, but it could be two years or so.

How bad will the economy get? Who knows, but I'm betting this is just the beginning. Some bank failures next? Could be. You don't turn an aircraft carrier around on a dime & neither does one turn around the economy on a dime.

As I am writing this, someone else just bought what looks to be 200 contracts at 5 1/2. My typing is slow, I'm amazed at some of you on this thread, you're able to type faster than I can talk.

Chris
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