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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.

DELL 132.08

-0.8%

3:59 PM EST

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To: OLDTRADER who wrote (164326)	3/8/2001 10:47:07 AM
From: D.J.Smyth	Read Replies (2) of 176387

old, emc remains 1.5X the market cap of Dell, even though Dell is growing at nearly 2X the rate of emc in storage - with Dell now holding sixth place (that's up from no place two years ago). within a year Dell may improve to at least 4th place; that's more than a doubling of storage sales simply through displacement - that is, storage sales will remain at a fixed amount for the next twelve months - Dell needs to take a larger piece of the pie. this is what Merrill thinks they'll do. the analysts have all kinds of ways to justify a position, though. we've witnessed that over the past year and a half. those who are short have two problems, (a) they can never accurately predict the bottom, and (b) they have trouble predicting the top when it arrives. in either case they're negative about both ends of the candle even while the candle is still lit. Reagan's position is that PC sales are falling faster than the benefits storage/servers/laptops will bring. PC sales are not falling per units; they're continuing to rise. earnings may remain flat or be slightly down - depending on the shift/mix bw desktop and laptop; so a real question is how Dell will perform, earnings wise in these other categories? PC unit sales continue to rise, but at a slower pace; nevertheless an increase is an increase... its also interesting to notice how that the "others" (pc market share) category in IDC research stopped falling the past two quarters

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