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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Perspective who wrote (77157)3/8/2001 12:38:48 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (2) of 436258
 
i fully agree with your view on this, but admittedly have no idea at the moment which stocks would be the best proxies to short. one would have to look at the portfolios of various REITs and judge that on a case-by-case basis.
one should definitely NOT go and just short REITs without deeper analysis...i expect e.g. that REITs that hold health care facilities and old age homes are likely to be a thriving sector regardless of how parlous a state the economy may find itself in in the future.
the first ones to feel the pinch will clearly be the office property holders and commercial RE holders in general, and as you say, those that have linked their fortunes to the hi tech boom are probably the most vulnerable. in that sense, California and Seattle based REITs should be on the top of one's list.
i'll see if i can get some information together, and will post what i find out on occasion.
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