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Strategies & Market Trends : ahhaha's ahs

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To: ahhaha who started this subject	3/8/2001 2:25:13 PM
From: Elsewhere	Read Replies (2) of 24758

Merrill Lynch on Ariba (ARBA) - 13 July 2000 Christopher C. Shilakes, First Vice President Peter Goldmacher, Assistant Vice President E-Commerce Rocketsled "We continue to be amazed at the growth rates maintained by Ariba as it sells its e-procurement and exchange technologies into a very receptive marketplace. The sequential and year-to-year growth rates have accelerated for the last three quarters, and we believe substantial upside remains in our forecast through FY 2001. We are boosting our FY 01 revenue estimates by 62% to $550 million and narrowing our LPS to ($0.07) from our prior ($0.15). We believe Ariba may achieve profitability even sooner then the 4Q FY01 we have currently forecast. We are also raising our 12-month price objective to $150 from our prior $100 target, which was eclipsed on Wednesday. Our new price objective is based on a 74x multiple of estimated FY 01 revenues. We believe Ariba continues to enjoy superior positioning in the e-procurement applications space, while expanding its footprint in exchange engines and direct materials supply chain technology with recent acquisitions. We like the blend of licensing and transaction-driven revenue in the Ariba story, and both growth engines are firing on all cylinders at present." Price: $103 1/2, one-year price objective: $150 Current quote, not much more than half a year later: $13 1/2 In retrospect it is amazing to see the degree of mass hysteria and the utter irresponsibility of "analysts" and other supposedly professional participants who kept on pumping their naked emperors far beyond any reasonable limits. About 5000 billion USD of "funny money" have evaporated since the March 2000 peak. I hope that some student of psychology or sociology feels attracted to creating a post-mortem analysis of the 1990ies tech bubble. I wonder why there hasn't been any public protest so far. Many retirement accounts must be affected. I should look up what happened in Albania. Some years ago the people threw out the government after a mass speculation had collapsed.

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