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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
CSCO 71.08+0.1%Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: Tulvio Durand who wrote (49679)3/8/2001 4:17:03 PM
From: Stock Farmer  Read Replies (1) of 77397
 
Tulvio - I honestly don't know.

Let's look at them.

"K": Huge part of cash flow depends on options, which dynamics have changed violently recently (thus changing K) by factor 2 or more.

"t" - how far in the future can you project the stability of their economic model? Chambers can't see revenue through the year.

"a" - where would you have the company stabilize in terms of growth rates. When do they start up the dividend, and what yield - my tea leaves indicate there will be one by 2010.

"e" - what is it. 55%, 30%, 20%, 0%? Is it constant? Not if this year is representative <ng>.

"r" - with Greenspan monkeying with the numbers, what do you think it should be?

When you look at this, it's pretty clear that a "stable" number is anybody's guess. Suggest you plug in numbers and see what you get and run some sensitivity analysis. Me, I tend to spreadsheet a parameterized real cash contribution and play with economic ratios rather than fall back on equations. Modern technology allows this luxury.

John.
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