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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: bumboo who wrote (77494)3/8/2001 7:06:48 PM
From: XBrit  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
I find KLIC particularly UFB. It just ran from 11 1/8 to 14 3/4 in 3 days.

Ball bonders, 80% of KLIC's business, are a pure capacity item with very short lead times. Nobody buys them 6-12 months in advance.

There is no compelling technology change occurring or upcoming. In fact, flip-chip technology will most likely obsolete the whole market segment within about 5 years. Flip-chip is MUCH less profitable for the tool makers than bonders are. I have absolutely no idea who will buy new ball bonders in 2001 or even 2002, the world is drowning in semi fab capacity already.

I expect KLIC's new orders to go to essentially zero by mid-year, and I am nuclear short this stock.
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