Excardog,
Several months ago didn't we discuss the "five phases of a mania" on SISD?? The reason I bring this up is that lately people have been bringing up the fact that the popular press cheerleading on energy seems to be cranking up. The fact that Maria & Cramer even mention E&P is evidently a sell signal, or so I seem to be reading from threadsters.
Energy stocks still have not reached an overvalue stage. Some have reached fair value, but many still flounder as undiscovered and dirt cheap compared to historical norms - this facing outstanding forward fundamentals. My perception of recent energy sector activity is that the mania, panic buying stage may now be on the launching pad.
Maria and Cramer cheerleading for the energy sector might signal the beginning of the end, but that end point might take a year or two to play out. Many of us on this thread, value players at the core, thought Internet stocks were overvalued in 1997 and wouldn't go near them, missing out on three years of spectacular gains before the party finally came to a crashing halt. I'm not saying that energy sector stocks will achieve those epic levels of overvaluation, but if energy sector stocks could achieve 2x fair value on panic buying, that would still lead to $60 VPI and $40 KEG. MVK - who knows.
Excardog, if you still have that article, can you post it again??
Warp |
