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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (40100)3/8/2001 9:14:42 PM
From: lurqer  Read Replies (4) of 54805
 
Your response is precisely why I would enjoy having that proposed conversation. So we don't get "bogged down" in some useless semantics, I'll define some terms. We can use them or any other definitions you would care to propose. I define a bear correction as a pause in that upward bull trend you mention - lasting typically from 18 to 30 months. Such a correction tends to occur when speculative excesses get too exuberant. I would define a secular bear market as a pause or reverse of that trend that is measured in decades and is caused by troughs in the demographic cohorts that are the maximum producers/consumers. Using these definitions, I would define a secular bull as that multi-decade uptrend that exists between secular bear markets, and characterized by a bulge in producer/consumer cohorts.

Just as I would behave differently if a black bear or grizzly wandered into my campsite, so I believe the same behavior for bear corrections and secular bears is inappropriate. It's one thing if your investment will come back in a couple of years, and another if not in your lifetime. The market didn't recover from the '29 debacle until the '50s. Many of the specific high flyers of the '20s never recovered. They simply ceased to exist. We haven't had a secular bear since the '70s ('82 to be precise). Current demographics imply one may begin later this decade.

Hence, my belief that the topic is appropriate for discussion on a ltb&h thread. If you disagree or would prefer not to participate, I will of course respect your wishes. There is little doubt in my mind though, that you could greatly enhance my understanding of these longer term cycles and how to best to prepare for them. Hence, I beseech you to get out your magnifying glass and consider the effects of these short term <gg> decade(s) long secular bear markets.

lurqer
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