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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (40106)	3/8/2001 10:55:29 PM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (2) of 54805

I'll know the discussion is especially worthwhile if many others join us. Completely concur. makes me think you've read one or both of Harry Dent's books. Right? Well ... uhh. Would you believe three? <gg> Since you mentioned the '29 debacle and the lengthy time it took for the economy and stocks to recover, I should also mention that I don't think any current-day comparisons with that period are viable. Similarly, I don't think comparisons with Japan's hapless stock market have any merit. In both examples, things are very different from 1929 and very different from Japan's economic boom-and-bust-based infrastructure. I don't pretend to be an expert on either, but I'll stick with my comparatively superficial understanding of the differences until someone proves to me that the comparisons really do have merit. Well I both agree and disagree. In both cases (US '30s and Japan '90s) a significant demographic trough, IMO induced a secular bear market. I also believe that the severity of both bears were exacerbated by some remarkable pigheadedness (to continue our animal analogies). Both the '30s Fed fighting imaginary inflation and Japan's reluctance to address its banking problem made serious problems worse. I agree that neither of these secular bears should be compared to our current "mild" bear correction. I fully expect that a year from now the current bear will be banished back to its hibernating den. What has me worried is the looming demographic trough in those producer/consumers that may portend a true secular bear later this decade. My beliefs are based more on convictions about the role technology -- U. S. technologies well entrenched in gorilla-like strength in particular -- will play in the world's economy over the very long haul. Well I can make the argument that the effects of significant technological revolutions (electronics and automotive in the '30s and microprocessors in the '70s) were swamped by demographically induced economic contractions. So why should we be sanguine about our economy in the hands of the "baby bust" generation? lurqer

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