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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: lurqer who wrote (40105)3/9/2001 12:00:37 AM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
Current demographics imply one may begin later this decade.

Huh? Given that nothing about the current population profile of the US corresponds to any pattern in the past, what in the world do you mean by this.

Seems to me that one of the most common and recurrent fallacies in thinking about the market is to mine out some pattern and then apply it to predicting the future, typically as if it was somehow a *major truth*. Well, guess what? The really recurrent patterns are pretty trivial and the rest of the forces operate on an environment which is never quite the same twice. How could one expect that the "rules" which might have supposedly applied 70 years ago would apply in the same way today with the massively changed character of both the companies which made up the market and the economy in which they were embedded?
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