Damn, MetalTrader you've given us all new heights to strive for in colorful and visual language. Great ones with: "lemming rodeo," "catatonic" ceo's in a "fetal position" for 6 months, and one more "puking session."
I agree with your assessment that the catalyst for a real "blood in the streets" selloff will likely be the fed's handling of the interest rates. It may occur because the fed loosens less in the near future or it may occur because the fed loosens and then inflation takes off, there is no more ammo left in the magazine, and still there is less capital for tech than is necessary for a near term recovery. If the fed could somehow find a way to ease the inflationary pressures in housing and energy without having to do it by dampening demand throughout the entire economy, they would do it. Unfortunately, as Telemarker pointed out the other day, monetary policy is a broad tool that cannot be focused on one sector and not another.
I still think that the tech stocks may not make a significant recovery until an energy fix is seen. I'm still holding and adding to my osx stocks. If we get a strong downdraft to nas. 17-1800 and inflation is moderate, I may jump into tech with the thought that we would be close to a bottom, or at least an intermediate bottom. If the climate changes and it looks like we may get a rally, I wouldn't be hesitant to trade it at even the 2000 level, but not with a lot of margin. Ed |
