But as we found out on Nov. 7, raw numbers must be broken down into meaningful terms for the power base to become established. Al Gore garnered 1.5 million or so more votes than his opponent, but GWB won the greater number of states. In terms of presidential elections, I think you'd have to look at these population surges on a state-by-state basis, and that probably favors the Democrats. As our esteemed thread founder (or flounder) jlallen has said before, his beloved New Hampshire is becoming infiltrated with liberal Bostonians, as is Maine. So the trend in New England appears to be moving toward the Democrats. Also, in the last election, New Mexico broke out of the pattern and voted Democratic -- barely -- largely on the basis of the increasing Hispanic population in the state. Will similar occur in Arizona, Colorado ... even Florida?
Perhaps the larger question is whether both sides can maintain their coalitions. What effect, for instance, would a "middle-of-the-road" appointment to the U.S. Supreme Court have on the Falwell-Robertson wing of the Republican Party?
GWB did an excellent job in forging his winning coalition, but keeping it intact may prove difficult after this first wave of tax-cutting legislation, etc., blows over. |
